It was 60 days ago that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. After Rogers curled home his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look curiously susceptible – however right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their star man to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition registered more shots and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
