A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
